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Ludicrous World Series of Poker odds corrected

Wednesday, June 29, 2005

From the Mike Caro Brain Trust at Poker1.com

True odds regarding 2005 World Series of Poker main event

Event Odds against Comment

Best player wins the main event
1,639
to
1
With more than 7,000 contestants predicted to pay $10,000 each to participate, you can expect a large number of players with little high-level tournament experience. If all players were equally skilled, the chances would be about one in, say, 7,500 (or whatever the size of the field) of any individual player winning. We think the best player (meaning, for practical purposes, any of the top competitors who have similar chances) has about three times as good a chance of winning in most tournaments as his or her "fair share" would suggest. In this event, we think "the best player" has an even better chance. But if anybody is willing to accept just 1,000-to-1 or less against them winning (including me), you should lay it, if you can afford to. Nobody has that good of a chance. -- Mike Caro

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